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Long-term global ocean heat content change driven by sub-polar surface heat fluxes
  • +2
  • Taimoor Sohail,
  • Damien B Irving,
  • Jan David Zika,
  • Ryan M Holmes,
  • John Alexander Church
Taimoor Sohail
University of New South Wales

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Damien B Irving
University of New South Wales
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Jan David Zika
University of New South Wales
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Ryan M Holmes
University of New South Wales
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John Alexander Church
Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
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Abstract

The ocean has absorbed approximately 90% of the accumulated heat in the climate system since 1970. As global warming accelerates, understanding ocean heat content changes and tracing these to surface heat input is becoming increasingly important. We introduce a novel tracer-percentile framework in which we organise the ocean into temperature percentiles from warmest to coldest, allowing us to trace changes in ocean temperature to changes in air-sea heat fluxes and mixing. Applying this framework to observations and historical CMIP6 simulations, we find that 40% of heat uptake between 1970 and 2014 occurs in the warmest 10% ocean volume. However, the coolest 90% ocean volume outcrops over 23% of the ocean’s surface area, implying a disproportionately large heat input per unit area. Additionally, a cold bias in the CMIP6 models is traced to inaccurate sea surface temperatures and surface heat fluxes into the warmest 5 – 20% ocean volume.